Rabu, 18 Januari 2012

POPULATION PROBLEMS AND THE IMPACTS ON NATIONAL DEVELOPMENT

Indonesia constitutes the fourth biggest country regarding its population number. Big the population causes various problems in the national development. These problems may be either quantitative or qualitative. The quantitative problems are seen in the big number and growth of the population growth, the uneven population density and distribution, and the expansive population composition. These qualitative problems are seen in the poor health and education of the population.   
            Big population actually forms a basic asset in the national development if supported by adequate human resources. In Indonesia, most of the human resources are not adequate; therefore, the fields of education and health need to be improved. Based on these, all of you have to study hard, be willing to work hard, be honest, and exercise regularly so that you can be qualified individuals.  If you are qualified, the available natural resources in Indonesia can be wisely managed by ourselves to improve the people’s prosperity in general. 

A. POPULATION PROBLEMS
            Why does the population in Indonesia always change from time to time?  This is due to births, deaths and people’s migration. If the birth-rate is bigger than the number of death-rate, the population will increase. What if the number of the birth-rate is smaller than the death-rate? Migration will also affect population in an area. If the number of people entering an area is bigger than those leaving it, the number of people in the area will increase. If the number of people leaving an area is bigger than those coming in it, the population of the area will of course decrease. Population problems are not only related to the problems of population growth, but also the problems of the population density and distribution, composition and quality.

     1. Population Growth
            The population in Indonesia increases from year to year.  Take a look at the increasing number of population in Indonesia from 1961 to 2009 in the following table.
                               Table 2.1
      The Population Growth in Indonesia
                              1961 – 2009
Year
Number
(Thousand)
Growth
 (%)
1961
97,010
2.13
1971
119,183
2.08
1980
147,490
2.32
1990
178,631
1.98
2000
203,456
1.70
2007
231,627
1.2
2009
243,300
1.5

Source: BPS and ESCAP Population Data Sheet, 2007-2009

            In Table 2.1, it is clear that the population in Indonesia keeps increasing from year to year. In 1961 the population in Indonesia was 97,010 millions, whereas in 2009 it reached 243,3 millions. Thus, within 48 years the population increased as many as 146 millions. The rate of the population growth before 1990 was still high (> 2%), while after 1990 the decrease was up to < 2%. Nowadays the population growth is about1.5%. The population growth in Indonesia is classified as moderate.  The population growth in the developed countries is < 1% and that of some underdeveloped countries is > 2%.
            Why does the population in Indonesia keep increasing? Do you know how to count the population of a certain country? The population growth can be divided into natural and total ones.  The natural population growth only  accounts for the number of births and deaths, while the total population growth accounts for the number of births, deaths, immigration, and emigration.





a. Natural Population Growth

Pc = P0 + (D – B)

 
     


Pc = the population calculated
P0 = the population early in the year of calculation
B = the number of births
D = the number of deaths

b. Total Population Growth

Pc = P0 + (B – D) + ( I – E)

 
     


 Pc  = the population calculated
  P0 = the population early in the year of calculation
  B   =  the number of births
  D  = the number of deaths
  I    =  the number of immigration
  E   =  the number of emigration

            When you pay attention to the calculation of the total population number, it is clear that the population growth is affected by births, deaths, emigration, and immigration factors.  The factors increasing the population are births, and immigration, whereas those decreasing the population are deaths and emigration. The influence of emigration and immigration on the population growth in Indonesia is very little.  The main influencing factor is the number of births which is bigger than the number of deaths.
a. Birth-Rate
            Birth rate is the rate of the increasing number of children in a certain period.   In 2009 the birth rate was 21. It means that in every 1,000 people there were 21 babies born. The birth-rate in Indonesia is categorized as moderate.  The birth-rate  can be calculated as follows:


    CBR  =  B / P x C
 


                                                    
                           CBR  = Crude Birth Rate         
                            B      = the number of births in a certain year
                            P      = the number of population in the middle of the year
                            C      = constant (1,000)           
 Notes :
 The birth-rate which is more than 30 is classified as high.
 The birth-rate which is between 20 and 30 is classified as moderate.
 The birth-rate which is less than 20 is classified as low.
 Example:
The population in Indonesia in the middle of 1980 was 147,000,000, the birth-rate was 4,998,000. What is the CBR?
CBR = 4,998,000 / 147,000,000 x 1,000 = 34, meaning that in every 1,000 people in a year there were 34 babies born alive.
c. Migration

            The movement of people to settle in one place from another is called migration. The movement from one region to another within a country is called local migration, whereas the movement from one country to another is called international migration. When someone leaves a country, he is called to emigrate, and the country where he moves into calls it immigration. 
            The role of emigration and immigration in the population growth in Indonesia is relatively small, so that the population growth is dominantly caused by the number of births which is bigger than that of deaths. The migration in Indonesia of which intensity is high is local migration. For example, the number of people moving from Java to other places outside Java is bigger than that of those moving into Java, which is relatively small. 
2. Population Density and Population in Indonesia

      Do you know what population density is? It is the number of people per unit of area. For example, the population density is 500/km2. The population number in Indonesia in 2009 reached 243.3 millions with the population density ranging approximately 130/km2. Indonesia is not very densely populated but the population is not widely distributed so that some areas have high population density while some others are least densely populated.  Look at the table of the population density in the Indonesian islands below.

Table 2.2.
The Population Density in the Indonesian Islands

No


Island

Width
Km2
Population Density Per-km2
1990
2000
2005
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
Sumatra
Java
Bali
NTT
Borneo
Sulawesi
Mollucas
Papua
Indonesia
473,606
132,187
5,633
73,137
539,460
189,216
85,728
410,660
1,919,443
77
808
493
139
17
86
22
4
93
68
904
555
152
20
73
23
5
109
72
1085
666
182
30
88
28
7
130
      Source: Population Census in 2000 and the estimation in 2005
      In Table 2.2. it is clearly seen that the population density in Java Island is very high, whereas that in Papua is very low. As a result, the national development in Indonesia is not evenly distributed. In Java island the national development is much more intensive if compared to that in other islands outside Java island.  

3. Population Composition
      Population composition is distinguished into four kinds, namely the population compositions based on biological, social, geographical, and economic factors. This sub unit only discusses the population composition based on the age and sex which belong to the biological factor. This composition can be presented in the population pyramid.

The population pyramid can be classified into 3 types:
a. Expansive Pyramid
This pyramid indicates a population growth. The birth rate is higher than the death rate. Such a population structure occurs in many developing countries.
b. Stationary Pyramid
This pyramid shows a relatively stable population growth. The birth rate and the death rate are comparable. Such a population structure often occurs in developed countries.
c. Constructive Pyramid
      This pyramid shows a decrease in population growth. The number of births is smaller than that of deaths. Such a population structure occurs in France, Germany, Sweden, and Belgium.
                              (A)                                 (B)                                 (C)
                                           Figure 2.2.  Population Pyramid
                                 Source: http://google.ac.id-piramida penduduk      
(A) Expansive                  (B) Stationary                      (C) Constructive
           
            What does the Indonesian population pyramid look like? Look at the Indonesian population pyramid in 2005 below.
































      
      Figure 2.3. The Indonesian Population Pyramid in 2005

Based on the form of the Indonesian population pyramid it can be identified:
  1. Sex Ratio
Sex ratio is the comparison between the numbers of female and male population in a certain area in a certain period of time. It is usually stated as the number of males in every 100 females.  The quantity of sex ratio does not really affect the development.

Sex Ratio = The number of males / the number of females x 100

  1. Dependency Ratio
            The dependency ratio is the comparison of the productive age  population and non productive age population. The productive age population is the population of the age group who have a job to meet their life needs, who are about 15 – 64 years old.  The non productive age group refers to the age group who do not have a job, who are below 15 years old and over 65 years old. They are supported by those of the productive age group.  

Dependency Ratio = P(0-14) + P(65+) /P(15-64) x 100

P(0-14)    = Population between 0 and 14 years old
P(65+)     = Population over 65 and up
P(15-64)  = Population between 15 and 64 years old
If the dependency ratio of an area is 87, it means that every 100 people of the productive age group support approximately 87 people of the non productive age group. The dependency ratio in Indonesia is quite high though it starts to decrease today. 
4.  POPULATION QUALITY
   The quality of the population is among other things determined by the education and health levels of the people. How are the levels of education and health of the Indonesian people?
a. Educational Level
          Do you know that Indonesia has amazing abundance of natural resources so that Koes Plus group band a song entitled ”Kolam Susu”? A verse in the song says ”orang bilang tanah kita tanah surga, tongkat kayu dan batu jadi tanaman” (People say our land is a heavenly land, wooden sticks and stones become plants). The verse shows us that the Indonesian natural resources are abundant. However, if you watch and listen to the TV programs, there are still many people in our country who are sick because of malnutrition. Even, many die of hunger.
          If you go to the cities, you can find many children in the street begging for money; they do not go to school. You can also see slum houses in the banks of rivers. Do you know what their educational level is like? Of course, they have a very low level of education so that they cannot improve the quality of their life. Therefore, all of you have to study hard up to the highest level of education to become qualified people. In this way, you can ensure yourselves to have a better future life. Look at the educational level of the Indonesian people in the following table:


                                    Table  2.4.
 The Educational Level of the Indonesian People in 2000
No
Education
Number  (%)
1
Elementary school drop-out
32.21
2
Elementary school
35.86
3
Junior high school
14.21
4
Senior high school/vocational school
14.65
5
University/ academy
1.68
Source: Central Statistical Agency (BPS) 2000

            Table 2.4. shows that the educational level of the Indonesian people is still low. The educational level of most of the population (68%) is elementary school and elementary school drop-outs. Only 1.68 % of the population are university graduates.
In 2005 the population who are university graduates increased up to 2.1 % and most of them (approximately 80%)  are junior high school graduates or below. Therefore, you have to study hard so that you can continue your study up to the university level in order that you can manage the natural resources in Indonesia for the people’s prosperity.

Vertical Scroll: NEWS FLASH

The country with the world’s highest life expectancy  is Japan with the life expectancy of 82 years old.b. Health Level
         One of the indicators to identify the quality of the population is their health level. It can be seen in terms of the infant death-rate and the life expectancy. The high infant death-rate and the low life expectancy shows a poor health level.
         
     
In Indonesia the infant death-rate is about  71 per mile which means that in every 1,000 births, 71  babies die. This is such a quite big rate that it shows a poor health level. The life expectancy of the population is 71 years old, which means that the average age of the Indonesian people can be up to 71 years old. Do you know the life expectancy of the people in the developed countries? Their life expectancy reaches over 80 years old. Thus, the life expectancy of the people in Indonesia is still under 75; it means that the level of health is not really sufficient yet.

B. IMPACTS OF THE POPULATION PROBLEMS AND THE SOLUTIONS
    1. The Problems of the High Population Growth
   The population in Indonesia in 1961 was 97 millions and in 2009 it reached 243.3 millions. So, within 48 years the population increased up to 146.3 millions. Before 1990 the population growth was very high (>2 %). High population leads to various problems such as deforestation,  smaller farming lands, floods in the rainy season, environmental pollution, and damaged lands as a result of errotions/lanslides. It also leads to social problems, for example the economic growth is obstracted, the unemployement rate increases, and crimes increase as well. One of the efforts made to overcome these is the implementation of family planning program.
      With the family planning program the rate of the population growth in Indonesia can be  controlled. Families used to have more than 8 children and that was a common thing. At present having many children is something shameful so many families only have about 2 children. As a result the number of elementary school age children is smaller and many elementary schools are closed or mergered because they have too few students. After 2000 the population growth is from 1.2  to 1.5 %.
Vertical Scroll: NEWS FLASH

The population growth rate of the developed countries is less than 1 %, even France experiences a negative population growth rate.
          Figure2.4. The Symbol of the Indonesian Family Planning Program
          Source: http://www.google.co.id/imglanding?q=keluarga berencana

2. Problems of Uneven Population Distribution
            The population in Indonesia is not evenly distributed. More than half of the population inhabit Java Island, of which area is only 7% of the whole Indonesia. Thus, it can be said that Java Island is highly densely populated.  Papua Island which is 3.5 times bigger than Java Island is inhabited by only 2.5 millions. This results in the regional development which cannot be distributed evenly.
         To overcome the problem of the unevenly distributed population, transmigration program is implemented. Transmigration refers to moving people from the densely populated island to the less densely populated islands. For example, people are moved from Java Island to Borneo Island.
         Transmigration is aimed at:
a.    Distributing population, labors and job opportunities evenly outside Java
b.    Managing the abundant natural resources outside Java
c.    Assimilating with different ethnic groups
d.    Improving the national security

3. Problems of Population Composition
         How does the composition of population affect the national development? Its influence on the national development is especially seen in  the dependency ratio. Indonesia has an expansive population pyramid which means that the number of people who are below 15 years old is still high. It causes a high rate of dependency ratio. The people who are below 15 years old are not considered productive to participate in the national development. Therefore, the big number of people who are below 15 years old can impede the development. The solution to this problem is implementing the family program planning.

4. Problems of the Population Quality
            The problems of education and health are very crucial in the effort to improve the quality of the population. The educational level of the Indonesian people is still low. Look at Table 2.4. Surprisingly most of the people in Indonesia are elementary school graduates or elementary school drop-outs. The government has made efforts to improve the educational level by, among other things:
a.    Implementing  a nine
Another indicator to identify the quality of the population is their health level. This can be seen in the infant death-rate and the age of life expectancy.  The high infant death-rate and the low life expectancy show the low level of health. In Indonesia the infant death-rate is about 71 per mile, and the age of the life expectancy is 71 years old.
          The government has made efforts to improve the people’s health by:
a.    Establishing Posyandu (Integrated Health Service Centre for Infants and Mothers)
b.    Providing nutritious food, especially for children under five
c.    Socializing the program of empat sehat lima sempurna (four to five nutritious diets)
d.    Providing generic drugs
e.    Eradicating contagious diseases
f.     Building public health centres and hospitals
g.    Providing clean water
year compulsary educational program;
b.    Increasing the number of qualified teachers;
c.    Increasing the quality of teachers through trainings;
d.    Requiring teachers to have a college degree;
e.    Providing schools with adequate facilities and reading books.





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